极地研究 ›› 2015, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (1): 47-55.DOI: 10.13679/j.jdyj.2015.1.047

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候系统模式对于北极海冰模拟分析

邱博1,2  张录军1,2  储敏3  吴统文3  谭慧慧1,2   

  1.  
    1南京大学大气科学学院, 江苏 南京 210093;  2江苏省气候变化协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210093;
    3中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081
  • 收稿日期:2013-10-25 修回日期:2014-02-20 出版日期:2015-03-30 发布日期:2015-03-30
  • 通讯作者: 张录军
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金;公益行业专项(气象);公益行业专项(气象)

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF ARCTIC SEA ICE SIMULATION IN CLIMATE SYSTEM MODELS

Qiu Bo1,2, Zhang Lujun1,2, Chu Min3, Wu Tongwen3, Tan Huihui1,2   

  1.  
    1School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
    2Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, Nanjing 210093, China;
    3National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2013-10-25 Revised:2014-02-20 Online:2015-03-30 Published:2015-03-30
  • Contact: Lu-Jun ZHANG

摘要: 利用全球耦合模式对比计划第五阶段(CMIP5)模拟试验的结果,并与观测资料对比分析,评估了CMIP5模式对北极海冰的模拟效果。结果表明:多数模式可以较好地模拟出北极海冰的空间分布以及季节变化特征。1979—2005年北极海冰迅速减少,所有模式均模拟出北极海冰减少的趋势,但减少趋势大小与观测差别较大。在全球变化的背景下,全球地表气温升高1℃,北极海冰的面积减少1.02×106 km2,而在模式中减少的北极海冰面积在0.62×106—1.68×106 km2之间,说明模式对于北极海冰的模拟仍然存在很多不确定性。

关键词: 北极海冰, 气候系统模式, CMIP5

Abstract: We evaluated the capability of simulation of Arctic sea ice for the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models in comparison with satellite data. The results showed that the spatial distribution of sea ice and the seasonal change characteristics are captured well by most of the models. Observations from 1979 to 2005 have revealed a decrease in the extent of Arctic sea ice and this was simulated by all the models, but with large differences in magnitude. In response to a 1.0°C increase in surface air temperature, the extent of Arctic sea ice reduces by 0.4 × 106 km2, whereas the uncertainties of the climate models indicate a decrease of ice extent ranging from 0.62–1.68 × 106 km2for a similartemperature rise.

Key words: Arctic sea ice, coupled climate model, CMIP5